For years, the food industry has been built around a fairly simple growth equation: sell more, larger portions, more items, more add-ons.
GLP-1 medications are beginning to challenge that equation. The bigger issue isn’t simply that people taking these medications eat less—it’s that when appetite declines, every bite has to work harder.

Less food does not necessarily mean less value

Approximately 3 million Canadian adults are now estimated to be taking GLP-1 medications. About 30% of Canadian users report eating at restaurants or ordering takeout less frequently, while 35% report ordering smaller portions or leaving more food unfinished.

In the U.S., households using GLP-1 medications have reduced grocery spending by approximately 5.5%, shifting away from snacks, sugary drinks, and alcohol toward protein, produce, and nutritional products.
Value is moving from quantity per dollar to benefit per calorie, benefit per bite, and benefit per dollar.

This creates a pricing opportunity

If a consumer previously bought a $20 meal and consumed 1,000 calories, offering a smaller version for $14 may be the wrong strategy.

What if the better answer is a $17 meal with fewer calories, more protein, better ingredients, and a portion the consumer actually wants?

  • The customer spends slightly less.
  • The restaurant potentially improves food cost and reduces waste.
  • The brand protects much more of the revenue   

Watch he attachment rate

GLP-1 impact may not show up in traffic first—it shows up in check size. A customer may still order the entrée, but skip the $8 appetizer, side of fries, dessert, or second drink.

So a restaurant CEO looking only at foot traffic could miss what is happening underneath it. GLP-1 could become an attachment rate problem before it becomes a traffic problem.

Our prediction for 2027

The future consumer will increasingly want less volume but more function: smaller portions, higher protein, better ingredients, and less waste. Companies will need to earn a greater share of a smaller appetite.

Through SHG PerformANT AI™, we model what happens to revenue and EBITDA if consumption falls 5%, 10%, or 15%, helping brands adapt portion architecture and SKU economics before margin quietly erodes.